Impact of Migrant Remittances on Ecuador’s Economic Growth
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The purpose that guided this research consisted in examining how remittances affected the economic growth of Ecuador between 2000 and 2025, For this, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated, incorporating as control variables the exports of goods, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the price of crude oil. The findings evidenced that remittances exerted a negative and significant effect on GDP both in the short and long term. On the other hand, exports of goods showed a positive and significant incidence, while FDI did not significantly influence the model. The consistency of these results was verified using Newey-West robust standard errors. Furthermore, the capacity of the model was evaluated through unit root and cointegration tests based on quarterly data from the Central Bank of Ecuador. The cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. In conclusion, remittances, although sustaining household income, contributed in a limited way to the country's economic growth.
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